Sunday, April 29, 2012

To Expand or Not to Expand


No, this isn’t about my ever growing waistline or my need to exercise.  It’s about the looming decisions facing the Sun Belt and its members.  There are changes afoot and there are a number of directions possible.

The Belt has added Georgia State to give the conference 11 football playing programs.   The Panthers are within the conferences geographical footprint and offer a very large market for television purposes.  While they do not draw huge crowds in the cavernous Georgia Dome currently, they have a large student body and a huge metro to draw from in the middle of football country.  Georgia State is coming in 2013 and the move was clearly based on market and potential on the field and in the stands.
Unfortunately, it appears that the Belt cannot afford to stand pat for long.  If rumors are true, UNT and FIU will soon be leaving for Conference USA.  North Texas has seen its standing as a football program diminish as other programs have joined the Belt since 2005 but along with FIU they offer two of the largest TV markets in the nation.  Conference USA has a voracious appetite for big cities regardless of their prowess on the field on court and there are a limited number of programs who fit the bill since the Big East cherry-picked its top programs.

All is not lost.  The Sun Belt is left with its top overall athletic programs in WKU and MTSU as well as its most recently successful football teams.  Arkansas State, Louisiana and Western Kentucky all obtained bowl eligibility last season and perennial power Troy returns.  MTSU and FAU have enjoyed postseason play quite recently as well.  Additionally, virtually every program remaining in the Belt has either recently upgraded or will soon be upgrading their athletic facilities.  Attendance for football games is at an all-time high and the conference is losing one of its most poorly fan supported programs in FIU.  A quick look around reveals that the Sun Belt is on the rise and losing two programs is not going to change that fact.  Every conference but the SEC has been affected by defections recently but life goes on.
How exactly should life go on in the Sun Belt if two teams leave?  Should the Belt stay at 9 football programs?  Invite teams to move to ten or twelve?  Invite FBS or FCS teams?  Go for big markets or teams that will fill the stands and the win column?  Stay within a tight geographical footprint or expand the boundaries? 

Commissioner Karl Benson has stated that he wants to expand the conference to include at least twelve football schools and fourteen overall.  While it’s possible he may have meant to get to twelve before the coming defections so we are left with ten football teams, I am going to assume he wants to have twelve football schools even without UNT and FIU.  With that said, let’s consider the candidates, their attributes and the various schools of thought.
One option would be to mimic CUSA and MWC and try to find large market teams to fill the three spots needed to get to twelve.  The schools that seem to be in that group include UNC-Charlotte and Old Dominion.  UT-San Antonio belongs in this group but they may very well be bound for CUSA.  As for UNCC and ODU, they both seem content with their current conference for the purpose of non-football sports.  This group of schools just does not fit what the Sun Belt needs in my opinion.

A second option would be to shake the FBS tree and see what falls out.  The WAC is drawing its last breath and several members will be looking for a home in 2013.  Some members of the WAC may very well find homes in CUSA or the MWC.  The schools most likely left looking for a home include Idaho, New Mexico State and Texas State.  All three schools push the boundary westward.  Idaho is so far removed from the Belt’s footprint that it would be a very longshot for the Belt.  NMSU has a lot of history with the Belt so it can’t be ruled out but again, the boundaries would be stretched significantly.  Texas State is the easternmost member of this group of three and recent rumblings point to their inclusion in the Sun Belt.
The final stone to turn in search of new members is to poach some of the most appealing FCS programs in terms of wins, facilities and fan support.  Consider this the anti-CUSA approach to building a conference.  Schools like Georgia Southern, Appalachian State and Missouri State have strong facilities, fan support and on the field/ court success.  Appalachian State would sit atop the conference in attendance most seasons and they have been very successful in the standings.  Similarly, Ga. Southern has six national titles and draws crowds as well as most Belt teams.  Missouri State has very strong basketball and baseball programs and facilities for those teams that would top the Sun Belt.  Their football facility is smaller but like GSU it is very nice and could easily be expanded.

In my opinion, the Sun Belt will use a combination of options two and three to expand to twelve football playing schools if UNT and FIU are indeed on the move.  Texas State appears poised to move the number to ten and give the Belt a continued presence in Texas.  The final two schools would likely come from a group that includes NMSU, Ga. Southern, App. State and UNCC.  While there are problems with location and accessibility, I would prefer that the Belt invite FCS powerhouses Ga. Southern and App. State.  The trips would be difficult but the potential to improve the strength of the conference and fill the stands are worth it in my opinion.  It’s best to continue the successful trajectory the conference has been on rather than chase markets in search of elusive television money.  With the rapidly changing landscape of college football nobody can be sure what the future holds but the one thing that will always be important is winning.
What are your thoughts?

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