Record Prediction - 2012

It seems like we’ve waited forever.  Eight months ago Arkansas State shocked the nation by pulling off one of the best hires in college football.  Since that day, the excitement and anticipation has grown and grown.  Now we are just days away.  This Saturday at 9:30cst inside Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon – The Gus Malzahn era begins!

In the past I have avoided making a prediction on season records.  What happens is I always have two trains of thought when reviewing the season and it is hard to find that middle ground.   I am a very passionate dreamer about my team and what they can do, but then I am also realistic.  For example, prior to last season I routinely told friends how we could finish the season 12-0.  I would point to the fact that James Madison showed Virginia Tech was beatable and we all knew that Illinois wasn’t that great, so the undefeated season was plausible.  But of course I could also explain how a 6-6 record was a real possibility, and often did so to a number of people.

This year I will try to find that place somewhere in the middle and make a prediction for RedWolfNation.  My picks will be based on easy picks as opposed to in the chronological order.

First let me start by saying that this schedule is really a difficult one.  Two “money” games and four of our five toughest opponents in conference are road games.   I would feel a lot better about this season if we had that 2011 defense to go with all the skill we have on the offensive side of the ball.  If that crew was back I’d be picking the Red Wolves 11-1 and talking about how we would be putting a major scare into the Oregon Ducks.  However we the defense will be a very inexperienced lot.

Okay, let’s start with the negatives.  I don’t think this defense is going to be as good as we need them to be early versus the two big boys – Oregon and Nebraska.  The Ducks are scary on offense and this year better than they have ever been on defense.  They very well could be in the national championship game again come January 2013.  We have a much better shot against the Cornhuskers, but it would require an offensive shootout as I don’t believe that our defense is going to be ready by game 3.

Now to the positives!  Alcorn State and South Alabama just will not have enough to keep up with the Malzahn’s offense.  Alcorn will be a better team than the Mississippi Valley State or Texas Southern squads but shouldn’t be able to stay anywhere close.  This game should allow our offense to fine tune themselves heading into conference play.  I believe that South Alabama will one day be a very good Sun Belt football program, but just not yet.  

The Red Wolves get Memphis, UL-Monroe, and Middle Tennessee at home this season.  Memphis has a new head coach and the Tigers should have a much better game plan and attitude this time around.  UL-Monroe was one of the 2011 games that the Red Wolves eked out and it vaulted them through the rest of the season.  Middle Tennessee struggled last year and ASU ran through them on their way to securing the conference championship.  I feel like all three of these teams will be better in 2012 than last season, but in ASU Stadium where our Red Wolves have built an excellent home field advantage, the good guys win.

That is 5 wins at home.  The only other home game is against Western Kentucky.  That game is the 5th game of the season and the first conference game.  WKU lost their stud running back Rainey, but they have a very good offensive line and should be able to run the ball.  If the Malzahn offense is ready, and they should be by game 5, then the ground and pound Hilltoppers shouldn’t be able to keep up with the Red Wolves.  Another season undefeated at home.

That leaves 4 road games – North Texas, Troy, UL-Lafayette and Florida International.  All of these teams have a legit shot to end up bowl eligible in 2012.  However I feel that North Texas is the weakest of this group, and Malzahn will have extra time to prepare coming off a Thursday night game the week before.  So even though they are playing in their nice new stadium, I believe Malzahn and company send the Mean Green out of the Sun Belt with a loss.  Okay, I know that I haven’t gone in chonological order but that is 7-2 with three games to predict.  I feel all three of these teams are beatable, but all of them will be capable of defeating the Red Wolves as well.  There will be more than a week to prepare for both Troy and UL-Lafayette and it will be interesting to see the things that Gus can do with time to prepare.  However versus Florida Int’l ASU will have only 4 days to get ready for the Thursday night ESPNU matchup.  I believe that ASU will pick up one win out of these three games and finish the season 8-4.

This defense really concerns me with so much inexperience on this side of the ball.  There is very little depth and there is a real lack of star power at the defensive end position.  The defense is what makes me nervous about my picks, thinking I’ve overpicked the wins.  But it is the offense that makes me believe we have a chance in every game we play.  If the offense is clicking, especially by conference play, I feel like it could be difficult for any Sun Belt team to keep up.  This is what makes me think we could be better than predicted.  To me 8-4 is a very good season for Arkansas State.  I believe the most important things for this season are to make it to a bowl game and get those extra practices.  Plus what an 8-4 season does is springboard the program into finishing the 2013 recruiting class and really jump into the 2014 class.