No, this isn’t about my ever growing waistline or my need to exercise. It’s about the looming decisions facing the Sun Belt and its members. There are changes afoot and there are a number of directions possible.
The Belt has added Georgia State to give the conference 11
football playing programs. The Panthers
are within the conferences geographical footprint and offer a very large market
for television purposes. While they do
not draw huge crowds in the cavernous Georgia Dome currently, they have a large
student body and a huge metro to draw from in the middle of football
country. Georgia State is coming in 2013
and the move was clearly based on market and potential on the field and in the
stands.
Unfortunately, it appears that the Belt cannot afford to
stand pat for long. If rumors are true,
UNT and FIU will soon be leaving for Conference USA. North Texas has seen its standing as a football
program diminish as other programs have joined the Belt since 2005 but along
with FIU they offer two of the largest TV markets in the nation. Conference USA has a voracious appetite for
big cities regardless of their prowess on the field on court and there are a
limited number of programs who fit the bill since the Big East cherry-picked
its top programs.
All is not lost. The
Sun Belt is left with its top overall athletic programs in WKU and MTSU as well
as its most recently successful football teams.
Arkansas State, Louisiana and Western Kentucky all obtained bowl eligibility
last season and perennial power Troy returns.
MTSU and FAU have enjoyed postseason play quite recently as well. Additionally, virtually every program
remaining in the Belt has either recently upgraded or will soon be upgrading
their athletic facilities. Attendance
for football games is at an all-time high and the conference is losing one of
its most poorly fan supported programs in FIU.
A quick look around reveals that the Sun Belt is on the rise and losing
two programs is not going to change that fact.
Every conference but the SEC has been affected by defections recently
but life goes on.
How exactly should life go on in the Sun Belt if two teams
leave? Should the Belt stay at 9
football programs? Invite teams to move
to ten or twelve? Invite FBS or FCS
teams? Go for big markets or teams that
will fill the stands and the win column?
Stay within a tight geographical footprint or expand the
boundaries?
Commissioner Karl Benson has stated that he wants to expand
the conference to include at least twelve football schools and fourteen
overall. While it’s possible he may have
meant to get to twelve before the coming defections so we are left with ten
football teams, I am going to assume he wants to have twelve football schools
even without UNT and FIU. With that
said, let’s consider the candidates, their attributes and the various schools
of thought.
One option would be to mimic CUSA and MWC and try to find
large market teams to fill the three spots needed to get to twelve. The schools that seem to be in that group
include UNC-Charlotte and Old Dominion.
UT-San Antonio belongs in this group but they may very well be bound for
CUSA. As for UNCC and ODU, they both
seem content with their current conference for the purpose of non-football
sports. This group of schools just does
not fit what the Sun Belt needs in my opinion.
A second option would be to shake the FBS tree and see what
falls out. The WAC is drawing its last
breath and several members will be looking for a home in 2013. Some members of the WAC may very well find
homes in CUSA or the MWC. The schools
most likely left looking for a home include Idaho, New Mexico State and Texas
State. All three schools push the
boundary westward. Idaho is so far
removed from the Belt’s footprint that it would be a very longshot for the
Belt. NMSU has a lot of history with the
Belt so it can’t be ruled out but again, the boundaries would be stretched
significantly. Texas State is the
easternmost member of this group of three and recent rumblings point to their
inclusion in the Sun Belt.
The final stone to turn in search of new members is to poach
some of the most appealing FCS programs in terms of wins, facilities and fan
support. Consider this the anti-CUSA
approach to building a conference. Schools
like Georgia Southern, Appalachian State and Missouri State have strong
facilities, fan support and on the field/ court success. Appalachian State would sit atop the
conference in attendance most seasons and they have been very successful in the
standings. Similarly, Ga. Southern has
six national titles and draws crowds as well as most Belt teams. Missouri State has very strong basketball and
baseball programs and facilities for those teams that would top the Sun
Belt. Their football facility is smaller
but like GSU it is very nice and could easily be expanded.
In my opinion, the Sun Belt will use a combination of
options two and three to expand to twelve football playing schools if UNT and
FIU are indeed on the move. Texas State
appears poised to move the number to ten and give the Belt a continued presence
in Texas. The final two schools would
likely come from a group that includes NMSU, Ga. Southern, App. State and
UNCC. While there are problems with
location and accessibility, I would prefer that the Belt invite FCS powerhouses
Ga. Southern and App. State. The trips
would be difficult but the potential to improve the strength of the conference
and fill the stands are worth it in my opinion.
It’s best to continue the successful trajectory the conference has been
on rather than chase markets in search of elusive television money. With the rapidly changing landscape of
college football nobody can be sure what the future holds but the one thing
that will always be important is winning.
What are your thoughts?
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